REPORTING · 26th July 2012
Kelly Marsh got up to present to Kitimat City Council on Monday, July 16th, about the Risks of a potential leak or spill.
“When Enbridge first submitted their application to the National Energy Board, I, like most residents wanted to know what this meant for our community. A question Council is still struggling with today. I attended meetings both for and against, some hosted by Enbridge, some by Douglas Channel Watch and even on moderated by Mr. Ron Poole. Two years ago, I started reading sections that interested me in Enbridge’s application to the national energy board. Primarily those associated with leaks or spills in the three areas of the project, the pipeline, the Kitimat Terminal and the marine transportation,” said Marsh.
He looked into the size and potential for the spills, with the help of a friend, Mr. Brian Hashimoto who teaches High School Math.
Marsh was so alarmed by his results, he stepped out of his comfort zone and wrote letters to the editor and signed up to present to the Joint Review Panel. He sought out a second math professor to verify the percentages. He found Dr. Shane Rollans, who works for Thompson River University.
Rollans Scrutinized the results and found only two errors in non mathematical data, assumptions Marsh had made based on Enbridge’s application to the National Energy Board.
He walked Council through the report, attached below. He estimated there would be one medium spill in the lifetime of the project and he provided the statistics.
“Overall, the chance of a medium spill in the whole project over a fifty year period is 77.5%,” said Marsh.
He estimates there will be one large spill over the 50 years the pipeline is operational. The large spill is estimated at 41%. Finally, Marsh has estimated a medium or large hydrocarbon spill during the life of the pipeline at 87%. He also provided the probabilities for more then 1 spill, up to four.
Marsh anticipates the data from Dr. Rollans was low because all the data came from Enbridge, the project proponent; it was made in 2009, before all the major LNG projects came online with their increase in tanker traffic.
He asked Council to reconsider their stance of Neutrality on the Enbridge Northern Gateway Project. He repeated some of the report on the Kalamazoo Spill.
“If Enbridge receives approval to construct and operate this project, we will be relying on them to protect our communities health and safety, not the national energy board, not the Federal Government. Enbridge has shown by their actions they are not responsible or competent. Our Community does not need this risk placed upon us and we should not trust them,” said Marsh.
Councillor Phil Germuth wanted to know more about small spills. Marsh said he has not received a response to his inquiries though. Councillor Rob Goffinet thanked him for participating and respecting the JRP Process.
Germuth asked if the data was based on older pipelines and wanted to know if there was newer data. Marsh replied it most likely was, although they probably accounted for newer safety measures.